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National Weather Service Issues Hazardous Weather Outlook For Southern Connecticut

"There is a low potential for a major coastal storm with heavy rainfall ... early next week." Some forecasters say rough weather could begin Sunday night and Monday for New London, but the track and evolution of the storm is still uncertain.

As weather forecasters continue to track Tropical Storm Sandy, which is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook for southern Connecticut.

"Tropical Storm Sandy is slowly gathering strength south-southwest of Jamaica. The current forecast track has Sandy passing over Jamaica Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane, then near or over eastern Cuba Wednesday night. Winds have already begun to increase in and around the Florida Peninsula, especially over the coastal waters where Small Craft Advisories and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect," the NWS says.

The NWS says that there is a low potential for a major coastal storm with heavy rainfall, high winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion in southern Connecticut early next week.

Keep Monitoring Forecasts

"This will ultimately depend on the eventual track and evolution of Tropical Cyclone Sandy as it interacts with a deepening upper level low pressure system approaching the east coast," the NWS says. "The storm may very well just move out to sea and have little if any impact on our weather. Again, forecast confidence is still low at this point since Sandy is still in the Caribbean Sea and any potential impacts are still several days away. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecasts on Sandy, and monitor the latest National Weather Service forecasts throughout the week."

Meterologist Gil Simmons from WTNH's WXEDGE, said in his morning update that "all eyes are on Sandy." He noted that early next week there will be an unusually high tide cycle because of the moon phase and that if the storm does affect the area, that strong winds could begin as early as Sunday night.

Kristina Pydynowski, senior meteorologist for Accuweather.com, says "Depending on the path of Sandy, now brewing in the Caribbean, people along the East Coast during the week of Halloween could be looking a destructive storm or breathing a sigh of relief. Final destination scenarios for Sandy range from bypassing the East Coast to creating a nightmare for tens of millions of people from Norfolk, Va., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston."

A Day Away From Getting 'A Good Handle'

When will we know more?

Ryan Hanrahan, the meteorologist with the NBC station in Hartford says we are at least 36 to 48 hours away from "really getting a good handle on Sandy."

"Sandy is a bit of a pain ... She’s not behaving like most tropical storms or hurricanes do. The 'spaghetti plot' of this afternoon’s GFS ensembles really tells the story with 2 distinct possible paths for Sandy," Hanrahan says in his blog. Some forecasters "curve the storm east ... the other half of the models take Sandy to just east of Cape Hatteras and sling shot it west into New England. That would be one of the most unusual paths ever documented for a New England tropical storm or hurricane!"

It Could Be a Big One

Eric Holthaus from the Wall Street Journal says, if it hits, it could count among one of the bigger storms in history:

What could happen is quite complicated, and may have precedence only a handful of times across the more than 200 years of detailed historical local weather recordkeeping (Big storms in 1804, 1841, 1991, and 2007 come immediately to mind).

So far, southeastern Connecticut has escaped dire predictions. The forecast for New London as of Wednesday morning, according to Weather Underground, is as follows:

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 61F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the SSE in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 45F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning, then clear. High of 63F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 50F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the ENE after midnight Overcast. High of 63F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 48F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Overcast. High of 63F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Overcast. Low of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Monday: Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 59F. Breezy. Winds from the North at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Monday Night: Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 32F. Breezy. Winds from the North at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.

Tuesday: Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the North at 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 1.2 in. possible.

Tuesday Night: Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog overnight. Low of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

Wednesday: Overcast with a chance of rain. Fog early. High of 57F. Windy. Winds from the NNE at 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

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